The Climate Clock

The Climate Clock

Complex Systems

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Climate variability

Climate DynamicsPosted by Harald Yndestad Fri, October 28, 2016 15:50:41


Figure 1. The global earth temperature (C) (HadCRUT4), global sea temperature (HadSST3) and global land temperature (CRUEM4) from 1850 to 2015 (Climate Research Unit).

The Figure 1 shows the global mean temperature has variability. The temperature has increased from about -0.4 to 0.5 or about 1.1 degrees from 1910 to 2000. The land temperature CRUE4 follows the global mean temperature HadCRUT4. The sea temperature HadSST3 is colder then the global temperature from 1850 to 1910 and warmer from 1980 to 2015 and indicates a difference in the data series variability. The data series shows that the global temperature started to grow from the 1800 century. From that time the mean temperature has grown in the grid. Possible sources of this increased temperature are accumulation of heat, redistribution of heath and solar irradiation variability.

10 questions:

  1. What do we really know about the cause of temperature variability?
  2. Why is there a cold period from 1850-1900?
  3. What happened in 1910, that caused the temperature to increase?
  4. Why did temperature decline from 1940-1980?
  5. Why do we now have a stable period of 2000-2015?
  6. What was the global temperature before 1850?
  7. Is there a new colder period, after 2016?
  8. Are global changes random or predictable?
  9. Why is the land temperature different?
  10. So. What do we really know about what influences these data?

Case: Accumulation of heat
Accumulation of heat on Earth is based on the ide there is a constant sun and an autonomous Earth system. The basic idea of accumulation of heat is that gases and clouds influence irradiation from the sun and heat flow from Earth in the atmosphere. Emissions of gases from Earth, may then increase global earth temperature. This greenhouse hypothesis has been discussed since Joseph Fourier in 1824. The implication of this hypothesis is that that global emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses controls the global temperature. From this hypothesis we may expect a continuous exponential temperature growth based on an exponential growth of CO2. The temperature development on Figure 1 increases in steps from 1910, 1940 and 2000, which indicates the may be other sources of global temperature variability.

Reference
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect

Dynamic model
A global earth temperature dynamic in an autonomous Earth system may be modelled by the simple.

The relation to the climate oscillation variability is based on a simple model

Ec(t+T)=(1-T*A(t))Ec(t)+B*TSI

where Ec(t) represents the global temperature, T a sampling time, A(t) Earth temperature loss rate, B temperature impact on Earth from irradiation TSI. This is controlled by B*TSI and stable only if T A(t) =1. The temperature will have an exponential growth if T*A(t) > and an exponential reduction if T*A(t) <1.

Question: Does this model explain the HadCRUT4 data series?




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