The Climate Clock

The Climate Clock

Complex Systems

Climate Dynamics,
Marine Eco Dynamics
Swarm Intelligence


The Winter is coming in the Barents Sea

Climate DynamicsPosted by Harald Yndestad Tue, July 05, 2016 17:16:18
The Barents Sea Temperature Variability 1900-2100
The Winter is coming

Kola data series: Eco system indicator


Figure 1: The Barents Sea Kola section data series from 1900 to 2014, and the long trend 55 yr an 220 yr periods.

North Atlantic Water controls the climate of the northern part of Europe. The water current passes the Faroe-Shetland Channel and into the Norwegian Sea and continues north with a minor inflow to the Barents Sea. In the Barents Sea Kola section the water temperature has been monitored since 1900 and now represents an indicator of Arctic climate, expected Barents Sea biomass growth and expected economy growth along the Norwegian coastline.

The long-term trend
Figure 2. The Kola section variability from 1900 to 2014 and estimated variability to 2100.

The Barents Sea temperature has grown the last 30 years to a level, far above historical records. The purpose of this study is to investigate new trends in the Barents Sea temperature variability. Will the Barents Sea temperature continue to grow, or will the temperature turn into a new cold period. The results show that the temperature in the Barents Sea most likely has reached a turning point and we may expect a temperature reduction period for the next 30 years.

Implication
A possible 30-year long temperature reduction in the Barents Sea will introduce a colder climate in North-Europe and influence the marine ecosystem in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. This will have a dramatic effect on the marine industry, the maritime industry, the fish farm industry and the economy on the Norwegian coastline.

References:
1. Yndestad H: (2016). The Barents Sea Temperature Variability 1900-2100. A new study

2. PINRO, Murmansk, (2016): http://www.pinro.ru/labs/hid/kolsec1_e.htm

3.Yndestad, H. (1999). Earth nutation influence on the temperature regime of the Barents Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 56(jmsc.1999.0469,), 381–387.

4. Yndestad, H. (2009). The influence of long tides on ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 56(21-22), 2108–2116. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.11.022

5. Yndestad, H., Turrell, W. R., & Ozhigin, V. (2008). Lunar nodal tide effects on variability of sea level, temperature, and salinity in the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea. Deep-Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 55(10), 1201–1217. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2008.06.003